Possible scenario
Redemptions Persist Longer
25% Chance
Withdrawal demand remains elevated beyond the initial cap period, indicating that investor confidence in semi-liquid private-credit vehicles has weakened. The pressure is still not systemic, but it weighs on listed alternative-asset managers and BDC-related sentiment.
Secondary impacts
- Finance -1.1%
- Technology -0.3%
Tickers
- OWL-7.3%
- ARES-1.8%
- FSK-1.3%
- BX-1.0%
- -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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