Possible scenario
Waters Begin Receding
42% Chance
Rainfall eases across the worst-hit areas, allowing evacuations, road repairs and relief distribution to proceed. The death toll still rises modestly as remote areas are reached, but markets treat the event as a contained regional disaster rather than a broader macro shock.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.1%
- Industrials +0.1%
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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