Possible scenario
Limited Israeli response
25% Chance
Israel concludes that Hezbollah bears direct responsibility and conducts a calibrated military response while trying to preserve the cease-fire framework. Hezbollah may answer symbolically, but both sides avoid returning to the scale of the 2024 war.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.3%
- Consumer Services -0.2%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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