Possible scenario
Retaliation Escalates
18% Chance
China treats the unilateral cap as discriminatory and responds through legal and commercial countermeasures. The dispute broadens beyond hybrids, increasing headline risk for European automakers with meaningful China exposure.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.7%
- Industrials -0.8%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.2%
Tickers
- STLA-0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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