Possible scenario
Sanctions Snapback
20% Chance
Political pressure from Congress and hawkish officials forces Trump to narrow or end the pause before the full 60 days expire. Oil markets reprice the risk that Russian exports face tighter financing, shipping, and insurance restrictions.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.8%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.7%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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