Possible scenario
Managed Sanctions Pause
45% Chance
The White House keeps the sanctions pause intact while Treasury and State clarify that the move is a temporary oil-market stabilization tool, not a permanent rollback. India receives time to adjust purchases without triggering the full 100% tariff mechanism, limiting near-term escalation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.3%
- Energy -0.3%
- Industrials +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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