Possible scenario
India Tariff Deal
25% Chance
Washington and New Delhi use the 60-day window to negotiate a practical compromise. India limits Russian crude growth or shifts some purchases to Middle Eastern and U.S. suppliers, while the Trump administration avoids immediately imposing the full tariff penalty.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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