Possible scenario
Tariff Pressure Escalates
20% Chance
A harder-line outcome is possible if the Trump administration concludes that Mexico is slow-walking deficit concessions or auto-content enforcement. This would not be a full trade war, but it would raise near-term risk for autos, industrial supply chains and cross-border freight.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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