Possible scenario
Talks Slip Into 2027
40% Chance
The most likely outcome is that Washington and Mexico City avoid a formal breakdown but cannot close a November package. President Claudia Sheinbaum uses the delay to reset expectations, while USTR Jamieson Greer keeps deficit and auto-content issues open into the broader USMCA review.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.5%
- Industrials -0.3%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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