Possible scenario
Limited November Deal
30% Chance
A narrower agreement remains plausible because both governments have incentives to show progress before the USMCA review becomes politically harder. The deal would likely focus on autos, customs enforcement, steel and data-sharing rather than a full trade reset.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.9%
- Industrials +0.5%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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