U.S. Enforcement Escalates

The most likely path is a U.S. enforcement response led by the Commerce Department's Bureau of Industry and Security and the Justice Department. The discovery fits a multi-year pattern of restricted Nvidia accelerators reaching China through gray-market AI-server channels, making subpoenas, entity-list additions, and compliance orders more likely than a broad market rupture.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.