Possible scenario
China Retaliates Selectively
20% Chance
China responds to U.S. pressure by targeting American semiconductor and networking firms through cybersecurity reviews, procurement slowdowns, or informal guidance. This is less likely than U.S. enforcement alone, but the political sensitivity of China Telecom makes a retaliatory response plausible.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.7%
- Industrials -0.6%
- Telecommunications -0.2%
Tickers
- NVDA-2.7%
- AMD-1.4%
- INTC-0.9%
- -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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