Possible scenario
China Contains Fallout
25% Chance
Beijing and China Telecom move quickly to frame the discovery as an isolated procurement violation by resellers or contractors. This reduces the probability of immediate U.S.-China escalation and limits market damage, though China Telecom remains under scrutiny.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.4%
- Telecommunications -0.4%
Tickers
- NVDA+0.8%
- SMCI-0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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