Possible scenario
Narrow OFAC Implementation
45% Chance
The Trump administration finalizes institutional sanctions against the International Criminal Court but limits the measure through Treasury licenses. The goal is to constrain ICC dollar access over the Netanyahu and Gallant cases without triggering a broader rupture with European allies.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.2%
- Business Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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