Possible scenario
European Backlash Builds
20% Chance
European governments, especially the Netherlands, France, Germany, and Belgium, push back against the extraterritorial use of U.S. sanctions against a treaty-based court. This does not become a financial crisis, but it raises sanctions-compliance uncertainty for banks and increases transatlantic political friction.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.4%
- Business Services -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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