Possible scenario
Containment And Delay
25% Chance
After announcing plans, the administration slows implementation to manage legal risk and allied opposition. The outcome remains punitive toward ICC officials and case activity, but the institutional dollar cutoff is delayed or narrowed.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.2%
- Business Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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