Scenario description
Assume commercial oil and LNG cargoes can transit the Strait of Hormuz with a sustained, independently corroborated pattern by the end of the observation window. Model the near-term transmission through delivered Gulf volumes, vessel routing and insurance, energy prices, inflation expectations, and broader asset sensitivity; do not assume a complete political settlement.
Initial shock
- Oil price-20%
- LNG price-35%
- Freight & shipping cost-20%
Secondary impacts
- Broad equity market+4%
- Credit spreads-35 bp