Possible scenario
Narrow Compromise Emerges
22% Chance
The spending campaign does not revive the full CLARITY Act, but it convinces lawmakers that digital-asset rules remain politically salient. A narrower package focused on stablecoins, custody, disclosures, and limited CFTC spot-market authority becomes the more realistic path.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.2%
- Technology +0.1%
Tickers
- COIN+1.3%
- +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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