Possible scenario
Republicans Barely Hold
28% Chance
Republicans beat the worst polling and forecasting implications, retaining Senate control through incumbency, candidate quality, and late Republican consolidation. This outcome would be a notable miss for the 52-seat Democratic projection but still consistent with a highly competitive Senate map.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Up
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.5%
- Finance +0.4%
- Healthcare
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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