Possible scenario
Democrats Reach 51
22% Chance
Democrats win control, but underperform the 52-seat projection by one seat. This outcome still reflects a strong anti-incumbent and anti-Trump climate, but Republican incumbents or nominees survive in enough states to limit Democratic leverage.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.5%
- Energy -0.5%
- Healthcare
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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