Possible scenario
Democrats Hit 52
40% Chance
Democrats convert the favorable national environment into a net five-seat gain, roughly matching Allan Lichtman's projection. The most plausible path is holding Georgia and Michigan while flipping North Carolina, Maine, and enough additional Republican seats in places such as Iowa, Alaska, or Texas.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.9%
- Energy -0.9%
- Healthcare
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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