Possible scenario
CFTC Enforcement Challenge
27% Chance
The CFTC challenges MNX's launch on the grounds that OpenAI and Anthropic valuation futures are swaps or event contracts requiring stricter registration and clearing treatment. This is plausible because the agency proposed treating event contracts as swaps only days before the launch.
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.6%
- Technology -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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