Possible scenario
House Flip Only
30% Chance
Democrats are favored to flip the House, but the Senate map remains difficult enough for Republicans to retain the chamber. This produces divided government, more aggressive House oversight of the Trump administration, and limited legislative capacity for either party.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.3%
- Finance +0.2%
- Technology +0.2%
- Healthcare
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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