Possible scenario
Contained Duelbits Breach
45% Chance
The most likely outcome is that Duelbits treats the incident as a contained hot-wallet or operational-security breach rather than a platform-wide insolvency event. The loss is meaningful for the company but small relative to broader crypto markets, so cross-market effects should be negligible.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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