Possible scenario
Appeal Overtakes Trip
20% Chance
The legal process around the £900 million ruling becomes the main market-relevant issue, overshadowing the India trade-trip narrative. Any commercial interpretation of the trip depends heavily on whether the appeal appears likely to reduce or confirm the penalties.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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