Possible scenario
October Hike Base Case
42% Chance
Markets increasingly treat an October rate hike as the central case after Kashkari's comments and a run of stronger-than-expected US data. The reaction is a modest hawkish repricing rather than a crisis because the Fed has already been signaling concern about inflation.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.9%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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