Possible scenario
Hawkish Fed Chorus
18% Chance
Kashkari's remarks are followed by similar comments from other Fed officials, making the hawkish message look coordinated. Markets begin to price not only an October move but a higher-for-longer path into year-end.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.9%
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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