Possible scenario
Data Dependence Holds
30% Chance
The Fed keeps an October hike on the table but avoids pre-committing before upcoming labor and inflation data. This is plausible because Kashkari has forecast only one hike this year while also saying inflation is still too high.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Utilities +0.2%
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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