Possible scenario
Diplomatic Oil Shift
20% Chance
Major Russian oil buyers reduce purchases enough to avoid immediate 100% tariffs. The law still hurts Moscow's pricing power, but the market impact is contained because barrels are redirected through Gulf, U.S., and other non-Russian suppliers.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.5%
- Industrials +0.4%
- Energy +0.2%
- Consumer Services +0.2%
- Non-Energy Materials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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