Possible scenario
Aggressive Buyer Tariffs
25% Chance
Trump uses the new law quickly and forcefully, applying or preparing 100% tariffs against major buyers of Russian oil. This would be a clear geopolitical escalation and a material trade shock, especially if India or China is targeted without a waiver.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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