Possible scenario
U.S.-GCC Naval Response
35% Chance
Washington, Abu Dhabi, and other GCC capitals move to restore minimum shipping security after multiple UAE-linked vessels are struck and sunk. The most likely path is a calibrated naval response that tries to reopen lanes without immediately expanding into a full regional war.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- Bitcoin Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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