Possible scenario
Prolonged Blockade
25% Chance
Iran maintains enough threat activity to keep shipowners, insurers, and charterers away from the Strait without triggering immediate large-scale U.S. retaliation. The blockade becomes a commercial-insurance crisis as much as a naval crisis.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +4.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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