Possible scenario
Diplomatic De-escalation
25% Chance
Oman, Qatar, and possibly China press Iran to accept a temporary maritime pause before U.S. strikes become unavoidable. Tehran may accept a face-saving arrangement if it can claim deterrence while avoiding direct war with the United States.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.