Possible scenario
Bitcoin Leads Flows
42% Chance
The most likely path is that Bitcoin ETFs extend their recent momentum after the strongest weekly inflow since October 2025. Ether ETFs remain weaker as investors favor Bitcoin exposure over a broader crypto allocation.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.4%
- Finance +0.3%
Tickers
- MSTR+3.2%
- +1.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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