Possible scenario
Sanctions Disrupt Flows
29% Chance
The rise in STS transfers is interpreted by Western authorities as evidence of sanctions evasion, prompting stricter enforcement against vessels, managers, and service providers. Some cargoes are delayed or stranded, producing a modest but real tightening in near-term crude availability.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.9%
Tickers
- FRO+1.7%
- +1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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