Possible scenario
Hidden Rerouting Dominates
38% Chance
The drop in regional crude departures is mostly a tracking artifact caused by cargoes being moved through ship-to-ship transfers, AIS gaps, and delayed destination reporting. Actual Russian and Iranian crude supply remains broadly available, but the trade becomes harder to monitor and more dependent on older, opaque tankers.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.3%
Tickers
- FRO+1.2%
- DHT+1.0%
- +0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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