Managed Brinkmanship

The most likely path is a tense but controlled negotiation in which Brussels keeps the market-access threat alive while Beijing avoids an immediate rupture. Both sides have incentives to preserve leverage: the EU wants Chinese concessions on EV subsidies and investment terms, while China wants to prevent a broader restriction on its companies in Europe.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.