Possible scenario
EU Escalates Threat
25% Chance
The EU could convert the France-Germany market kill-switch idea into a formal mandate covering public procurement, strategic infrastructure or investment permissions. This would harden the trade dispute beyond tariffs and increase the probability of Chinese countermeasures.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.8%
- Industrials -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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