Possible scenario
China Retaliates
20% Chance
Beijing may respond to the hawkish EU mandate with targeted retaliation rather than broad disengagement. China has already used brandy and other sector probes as leverage, and it could expand those tools if the EU moves closer to a market-access switch.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.8%
- Industrials -0.7%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.3%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals -0.3%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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