Possible scenario
Safety-Driven Slowdown
17% Chance
An accident, software failure, or public-safety dispute forces regulators to pause part of the Shenzhen fleet. The most likely negative outcome is a temporary tightening of permits rather than a full reversal of China's autonomous logistics policy.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.2%
- Industrials -0.7%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
- Business Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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