Possible scenario
State Holds Line
45% Chance
The Lebanese government refuses to return the explosives and frames the seizure as a test of the March 2026 ban on Hezbollah military activity. Hezbollah protests politically but avoids direct confrontation with the army, limiting the event to a domestic sovereignty dispute.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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