Possible scenario
Domestic Security Escalation
20% Chance
The dispute escalates inside Lebanon as Hezbollah tests the government’s willingness to enforce the ban on its armed activity. The most likely escalation involves intimidation, roadblocks, and limited clashes rather than a full return to civil conflict.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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