Possible scenario
Standoff Persists
30% Chance
The Board of Peace and Israel maintain the halt on commercial goods while allowing humanitarian aid to continue through separate channels. Hamas keeps accusing the Board of bias, but neither side takes steps that immediately collapse the broader pause in fighting.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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