Backlog Remains Severe

The scale of the disaster overwhelms Nepal’s limited forensic capacity, and many missing-person cases remain open through late 2026. This scenario is plausible because 6,000 people were reported missing and sample matching requires relatives, records, and usable remains, all of which are unevenly available after floods.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.