Possible scenario
Regional Spread Increases
20% Chance
The outbreak reaches more border areas or large transport corridors, increasing the risk of cross-border spread into Uganda, Rwanda, or South Sudan. Regional governments tighten screening and WHO deploys more personnel, but the event still remains primarily a Central African public-health crisis.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.3%
- Healthcare +0.3%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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