Possible scenario
Persistent Transmission Plateau
31% Chance
Cases stop falling for an extended period because violence, mistrust, and population movement prevent full contact tracing. The outbreak remains largely inside eastern DR Congo, but it becomes a longer and more expensive humanitarian emergency.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Healthcare +0.1%
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.