Possible scenario
Contained Domestic Plot
45% Chance
Investigators conclude the assassination plot against Prime Minister Donald Tusk was principally a domestic extremist case rather than an operational foreign-intelligence attack. The discovery of improvised explosives raises the seriousness of charges but does not produce a broader national-security rupture.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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