Possible scenario
Security Risk Intensifies
20% Chance
Militant threats, Iranian objections or renewed Red Sea disruptions make the pipeline agreements look like a response to rising transport insecurity. In this scenario, markets focus less on future infrastructure benefits and more on immediate energy-route risk.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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