Possible scenario
Talks Keep Moving
45% Chance
The New York meeting produces process rather than a settlement: another round of envoy-level talks, parallel consultations with Kyiv, and no public text. This is the most likely path because the core disputes over territory, sanctions, security guarantees, and sequencing remain unresolved despite continued Trump administration engagement.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
- Finance +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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