Possible scenario
Talks Break Down
20% Chance
The New York channel fails to bridge the core divide between Russian territorial demands and Ukrainian security requirements. Washington then pivots back toward pressure tactics, including sanctions threats and accelerated weapons deliveries.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.8%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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